“The money that comes in from the federal government is important,” said Steven Peterson, clinical associate professor of economics at the University of Idaho. “This is an old rodeo … they have adapted workarounds but those workarounds will eventually cease to be functional at all, as time goes on.”

There are three general areas of impact to the economy during a government shutdown, said Peterson. The first is the impact on federal employees in the state, the second is delayed payments to subcontractors and the third is delayed licensing.

For example, there are thousands of federal jobs in Idaho, he said. Though this represents only 2.37% of total employment, many are living wage jobs. The federal government sector contributes around $3 billion to the gross state product.

“It would be something that would be felt, but it wouldn’t be catastrophic,” Peterson said.

At the beginning, furloughed workers would likely keep spending since they expect to receive their salary after the shutdown ends. But the longer a shutdown goes on, the more their households will see a disruption and drop their spending.

Peterson also noted delayed payments to subcontractors that could affect, for example, university research projects or other similar contracts with the private sector, depending on how long the shutdown lasts.

On Wednesday, the University of Idaho sent a memo to employees warning of the impacts on sponsored funding. The email told employees that those who receive federal funding “should plan for the potential of a stop-work order, a reduction of expenditures and delays in proposal submissions, reviews and prior approval processing.”

The memo also warned that access to federal laboratory spaces will be restricted or closed. It said most research grants and cooperative agreements will be able to continue with “minimal disruption.”

Boise State University spokesperson Mike Sharp said in an email that BSU "planned for a temporary shutdown of the federal government and will be able to address any short-term disruptions as a result." Sharp said review of federal research proposals will stall. 

"The university will continue to monitor research, federally sponsored student scholarships and other possible service impacts to mitigate disruptions as quickly and to the extent possible," he wrote.

Idaho State University expressed similar concerns about research programs. Corey Zink, ISU's associate vice president for enrollment management, also noted it could impact student aid. 

"Typically, the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) is available for families beginning Oct. 1, but because of revisions required by the FAFSA Simplification Act, the 2024-2025 FAFSA will likely not be available until the end of December," Zink said in an emailed statement. "Our Financial Aid team is concerned a shut-down could push the availability date even further."

The United States has a very privileged position in the world economy, Peterson said. He said he was concerned that these kinds of battles could jeopardize that position.

“Idaho exports a lot of agriculture, manufacturing products and other types of products to nations around the planet,” Peterson said. “Having that privileged position in the financial structure in the world economy facilitates Idaho’s trade.”

Locally, the city of Boise said the government shutdown may delay reimbursements from the federal government. The shutdown could also mean it would take longer to hear back on any grant applications, including one submitted to help bring rail back to Boise, a city spokesperson said.

The federal government manages 34.5 million acres of land in the Gem State — accounting for nearly two-thirds of the state’s total land mass.

National forests span 20.4 million acres of Idaho, or about 40% of the state. The U.S. Forest Service, which manages national forests, is an agency under the USDA; Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said Monday that if a shutdown occurs, these forests would "shut down."

The Bureau of Land Management oversees about 12 million acres in Idaho.

The BLM told the Idaho Press Wednesday that it didn't have a comment but the agency might know more about the potential impacts in the coming days. The National Parks Service also said it had nothing to say.

Thousands of Idahoans also rely on federally funded benefit programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP, which used to be known as the food stamp program. Women, Infant and Children, or WIC, is another nutrition program that could be affected.

The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare administers these programs, among other federally funded health benefits; A spokesperson said Wednesday that these programs won’t immediately be impacted on Oct. 1, however the department was awaiting contingency plans that would include projections on how long it would take before Idahoans using them would be affected.

On Monday, Vilsack spoke at a press conference about potential negative impacts to the USDA's programs — including WIC and SNAP. 

He said to food assistance program SNAP would be funded through the month of October, but could be negatively impacted if a shutdown lasted longer. 

However, he said there isn't as much contingency for WIC and said it will depend on how much funds states have on hand for how long the programs will last. 

"With a shutdown, what we could see across the United States is a denial of those benefits and opportunities, in some cases it would be literally within a matter of days after the shutdown, in some states it may be literally a matter of weeks," Vilsack said. 

There are 30,766 WIC recipients in Idaho who would lose access funds for groceries, nutrition education, breastfeeding information and support, and connections to healthcare and other services.

He also said market loan programs for small to mid-sized farms wouldn't be available if offices shutdown as well as USDA rural home loans. 

The Idaho State Department of Education has "initiated work" on guidance for local education agencies for a potential shutdown, spokesperson Maggie Reynolds said in an email. 

"The shutdown has the potential for serious consequences at the local level, and guidance is contingent upon whether or not the U.S. Department of Education’s funding system and the employees who run it are classified as essential," Reynolds said. "If that is the case, and we hope that to be, then the SDE will be able to draw down the monies for our federal programs. If not, the SDE has ten days of federal funds available for schools.”

Around 3,500 active duty military service members also stand to be affected by a shutdown. Senior White House officials in a press briefing Tuesday said these personnel would be required to keep working but wouldn’t receive a paycheck until the shutdown ended and funding was made available. Many other civilian employees of the armed services would not be allowed to work and would also stop receiving pay.

The most recent and longest government shutdown in December 2018 to January 2019 impacted Idaho.

For example, the Ranch Club in Garden City (now the Somewhere Bar) told BoiseDev at the time that the government shutdown slowed down the process of receiving its liquor license.

“It’s those kinds of interruptions that are going to be the most damaging to the economy,” Peterson said. “They’re kind of unseen because we take a lot of these processes for granted … It could interrupt licensing across the economy.”

The Washington Post reported that the top places outside the Washington area with federal employees affected by the shutdown included Idaho.

The Boise Airport is dependent on two federal agencies, the Transportation Security Administration for its TSA officers and the Federal Aviation Administration for its air traffic controllers. Both have to keep working as they are considered essential, a spokesperson said.

There are about 268 TSA officers in Idaho and 39 air traffic controllers, according to the White House.

However, during the last shutdown, the Boise Airport did not see service interruptions even as TSA agents worked unpaid, Boise State Public Radio reported in January 2019.

During the 2013 government shutdown, the New York Daily News reported that the search for a missing Idaho hiker was hindered because of the shutdown. Unpaid park rangers searched for the hiker without access to key government resources.

For many, the government shutdown isn’t a question of how an agency will function, but a question of survival. Marc Blackburn in 2013 was a long-tenured National Parks Service employee working at Nez Perce National Historical Park, the Guardian reported. His wife worked part-time at the University of Idaho, Blackburn told the Guardian. But he still was facing financial concerns.

“I am certainly worried about meeting all of our monthly financial obligations if the furlough extends for more than two weeks,” he told the Guardian. “I want to return to work.”

Since then, Idaho has grown tremendously, something Peterson said could help Idaho out through a shock like a shutdown.

“When you have positive economic and population growth, it makes it possible to take a lot of shots that would be more harmful than others,” he said. “We are a high octane, high growth state.”